Glass main contract FG2409 since the end of March shock uplink, rising from 1407 yuan / ton to 1596 yuan / ton. The recent rise is mainly affected by production line production, demand start-up and position shift. Supply-side daily output fell slightly to 17.Tronblockchain. 460000 tons, the apparent consumption on the demand side fell at the end of the month, and the inventory side turned to a small accumulation after 2-3 weeks. The market expects trading to be dominant, but difficult to sustain, and it is expected that trading will end before there are signs of a turnaround in the spot, and there may be opportunities for FG9-1 anti-hedging before the rainy season. Policy stimulus is the risk point.
[glass price fluctuations attract market attention, investors need to pay close attention to the future trend] since the end of March, the glass market has experienced a round of shock upward.TronblockchainThe phased lows and highs of the FG2409 contract hit 1407 yuan / ton and 1596 yuan / ton respectively. It is worth noting that FG2405 contracts in recent months in the last two weeks of large positions did not appear forced positions or fierce market fluctuations. This round of price increases are mainly driven by three factors. First of all, the increase in glass supply brought about by the commissioning of the production line in the first quarter, as well as the expected revision of the rapid accumulation warehouse caused by the cold repair of some production lines in April, work together on the market. Second, concerns about demand start-up around the Dragon Boat Festival eased with the periodic replenishment of inventory in the middle and lower reaches of April, and inventory data also showed a decrease of 2-3 weeks. Finally, the impact of the shift of positions in recent months is also a factor in the rise in prices. On the supply side, from late March to mid-April, due to the cold repair of some production lines, the daily output increased from 17.Tronblockchain. 650000 tonnes fell slightly to 174600 tonnes, and although production remains at recent highs, marginal increments have slowed. The demand side showed a marked decline at the end of April, mainly due to the cooling of periodic replenishment activities in the middle and lower reaches, as well as the arrival of the May Day holiday and the rainy season, making speculative demand difficult to maintain. The inventory side also shows a similar trend, at the beginning of 2-3 weeks of the month, the speed of de-stocking began to slow down, to a small increase, later may face greater pressure of accumulation. From the perspective of price spread, with the rise of futures prices, the basis of some manufacturers has become negative, while the performance of the spot market is still weak. At present, the market presents phased expected transactions, driven by factors including macro and policy expectations.TronblockchainThe concussion of the disk went up. This trend promotes the willingness of current hedging and middle and lower reaches to take goods, thus promoting the removal of upstream manufacturers to the warehouse. However, there are questions about the sustainability of the expected transaction. Although the position and contradiction of FG2405 contracts in recent months once reached the highest point in recent years, the small differences in the spot market led to the natural disappearance of the big differences in the market. Transferred to the FG2409 contract, the further expansion of the basis may reattract the spot merchants and hedgers to enter the market, but in the case of the spot turning into a stock accumulation, the pressure accumulated month by month may restrain the subsequent speculative sentiment. The policy impact is still there, but the implementation path and actual impact need to be further tracked. The capital situation of some real estate enterprises improved slightly at the beginning of the year, especially in terms of foreign investment, but the latest data show that foreign capital utilization fell 11.9 per cent from January to March compared with the same period last year, indicating that the total amount of capital is still declining. In addition, the impact of policies and stimulus measures on glass demand also requires further attention. For the future, investors can consider looking for anti-FG09-01 opportunities before the rainy season. Before there are clear signs of a turnaround in the spot market, the near-end reality faces sustained negative data pressure, and with the resumption of the accumulation process, it is expected that the transaction may end in stages. At the same time, we need to pay attention to risk points such as sustained policy stimulus.
