Ethylene glycol supply pressure in May, port inventories may rebound, medium-term supply recovery under the weak price shock, pay attention to the situation in the Middle East and other risk factors.
[investors on the price of ethylene glycolCallaghanbingoThe outlook for May is neutral, and the market expects short-term volatility and a small rebound]
When analyzing the latest developments in the ethylene glycol (EG) market, investors are generally cautiously optimistic about the ethylene glycol market in May. Although the port inventory is relatively low in the short term, and affected by low profits, the supply pressure of domestic ethylene glycol is not great, resulting in low gas purchase, the market is also faced with the challenge of recovering foreign devices and gradually returning to high levels of imports into the port in the second quarter.
Saudi exports of ethylene glycol have gradually increased since the second quarter, while the concentrated supply of Iranian goods to Hong Kong and North America is expected to increase, and China's EG imports are expected to rise to 50-600000 tons in the second quarter. At the same time, inventory in the main port of EG accumulated slightly in April, and the enthusiasm of picking up goods downstream was low.
In the end market, the high level of weaving and polyester plant start-up supports the demand for terephthalic acid (PTA). Although there is a periodic replenishment under the inventory of low grey fabric finished products, the load of filament and bottle chips is at risk of decline in May.
In terms of strategy, investors remain neutral on the EG market in May and expect a small rebound in prices in the short term, but in the long run, investors should sell high to hedge.
It is noteworthy that the large fluctuations in coal and oil prices and the uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East may pose risks to the ethylene glycol market.
